What Lies Ahead: Ten Risks for the Next Ten Years

While some days, it seems impossible to focus on any threats other than the vulnerabilities and accompanying hardship of the current COVID-19 pandemic, it is critical that senior Government leaders take a more strategic and long-term view of all potential threats over the next four to ten years. These are threats that we can only imagine, beyond today’s reach and capabilities, but nonetheless plausible from those who intend to do us harm or from potential threats that natural or man-made catastrophes can cause. Once senior leaders are aware of the threats, they must prioritize them and make choices about where to invest in preparation and prevention.

Recognizing this empirical need, Arc Aspicio and Toffler Associates convened diverse groups of senior leaders in Government and the private sector for a Future Threat Lab Think Salon Series – Ten Risks for the Next Ten Years. These leaders engaged in a strategic discussion of emerging risks and technology threats that security and policy leaders must consider and mitigate over the next decade.

Together, the group stepped back to take a broader view of threats and vulnerabilities within and across our social structures, economic systems, political ideologies, and commercial behaviors. They identified the highest priority areas where threat actors may further exploit. Beyond the pandemic and election security, the group explored risks related to the reputation of the Government, disinformation, transnational criminal organizations, and infrastructure vulnerabilities.

Additionally, two underlying themes emerged: Trust, generally, and trust in Government specifically, and law enforcement collaboration. First, the essential role that trust plays in the Government protecting its citizens. Second, the importance of even broader collaboration at all levels of Government and with the private sector to jointly agree on risks and prepare together.

In today’s complex environment, layered risks – a pandemic aligned with an electrical grid issue combined with a national security event like the Olympics – emerged as very likely, with these leading to the most substantial consequences in the long-term. The leaders participated in a simulated scenario that made the criticality of law enforcement information sharing and collaboration an obvious area of focus.

The Threat Lab helped identify, prioritize, and begin discussions around preparation and mitigation for the myriad of threats we could face as technology, tactics, international influences, and other factors change at breakneck speed. Leaders and specialists from the inaugural cohort nearly unanimously decided that these scenario-based Threat Labs to envision the future should be routine rather than occasional. It opened their aperture to potential threats and resulting consequences.

Emerging threats in early 2021 emphasize the importance of continuing to conduct Threat Labs. In 2021, we are planning Threat Labs on specific mission focus areas (e.g., border security, transportation security, cybersecurity, and infrastructure threats). If you would like to participate in a future event or have a topic to suggest, please contact the Arc Aspicio SILab@arcaspicio.com.